Business First of Columbus – 11:11 AM EDT Tuesday

The Columbus area saw a 46 percent jump in nonresidential building contracts in July, while residential contracts, continued to slip, says a report from McGraw-Hill Construction.

Nonresidential contracts last month totaled $145.7 million, an increase from $99.6 million a year ago. Residential contracts dropped 9.8 percent to $185.4 million from $205.6 million last year, reflecting a slumping housing market.

McGraw-Hill’s research and analytics unit compiles monthly reports on construction contracts, using data from Delaware, Fairfield, Franklin, Licking, Madison, Morrow, Pickaway and Union counties. Nonresidential buildings include those for commercial, manufacturing, educational, religious and hotel uses. Residential buildings include one- and two-family houses and apartments.

Year-to-date, nonresidential contracts, helped along by big gains between March and May, have jumped nearly 45.8 percent to $890.2 million, from $610.3 million a year earlier.

Contracts for housing between January and July fell 7.3 percent to $1.14 billion, from $1.23 billion last year.

McGraw-Hill Construction is a division of New York-based McGraw-Hill Company Inc. (NYSE:MHP), a provider of textbooks, educational services and financial and business information.

The parent company is one of Central Ohio’s largest employers with more than 1,100 workers at its education publishing center in the Polaris area of Columbus and a distribution operation on the city’s east side.

THE NATION’S HOUSING
Sunday, July 30, 2006
KENNETH HARNEY

David Berson, chief economist for mortgage giant Fannie Mae, said that one of the few immutable laws of economics is “Unsustainable trends eventually come to an end.”

And the end of the housing trend is pretty much where we are.

Ben Bernanke, chairman of the Federal Reserve, was more opaque. He told Congress, “The downturn in the housing market so far appears to be orderly.”

In classic Fed-speak, Bernanke managed to simultaneously soothe — and unsettle — his listeners. An “orderly” realestate downturn sounds OK, right? But what about “so far”? What does that mean in practical terms for people who need to sell a house in the coming months? And what about buyers? Could the property they buy be worth less in a year?

Part of Bernanke’s job is to avoid specific predictions at all costs. But top housing economists such as Berson are paid to make projections, and he offered them July 20 in a midyear forecast teleconference with Wall Street analysts.

Berson thinks that the Federal Reserve “is not done tightening” the ratchet on interest rates and will move up short-term rates again in August. After that, rates are likely to stabilize, bringing at least a temporary cessation to rising home mortgage rates.

He expects average homeprice appreciation, which had been running at a double-digit annual clip nationally for the past year, to drop to 3 percent or less by the end of the year. (On this point, Berson is more bearish than most of his housingand mortgage-industry colleagues, who project average appreciation in the 4 percent to 6 percent range.)

If investors dump rental houses and second homes purchased during the boom years onto the market in larger-thanexpected numbers, Berson thinks price appreciation could drop to a 1 percent or 1 1 /2 percent annual rate — a level not seen since the recession of the early 1990s.

In a handful of markets where investors accounted for large shares of boom-time property purchases and price increases soared for years, Berson thinks “there is a good chance of declines” in average home values. Although he avoided naming all of the markets that Fannie Mae worries about, he did identify San Diego, parts of California plus large swaths of Florida “but not Orlando.”

Like many analysts, Berson said the weakest link in the housing market — and the most vulnerable to price declines and investor dumping — is the condominium sector. Many markets are glutted with unsold inventories of new and converted condo units, and Berson is concerned that significant price corrections could be just over the horizon.

What to make of such sobering projections? Here are a few thoughts.

• Neither Berson nor Bernanke foresees widespread property-value declines as part of the current down cycle. Only in those markets where speculation was rampant from 2003 to 2005 and where job and population growth are anemic are there risks of price declines.

• Neither expects mortgage rates to rise significantly higher than today’s rates, which are still on the low side by historical standards. As long as financing is affordable, buyers will find ways to purchase houses.

• For all-weather real-estate players, a flattening market means changing one’s tactics, not burrowing away to hibernate until the market warms up. For sellers, it means getting acquainted (or reacquainted) with the toolbox of techniques developed during the down periods of the 1970s, ’80s and ’90s — for example, seller financing, where you take back a second note on concessionary terms to push the sale, take back a first note if you can afford to, or “buy down” your purchaser’s interest rate to lower monthly payments. Real-estate brokers can fill you in on these strategies along with their pros and cons.

For buyers, down markets often offer exceptional opportunities to acquire real estate at prices that were unthinkable just a few years before. Again, the message is: Don’t go to sleep. To the contrary, get off your duff and scour the market for properties that might never be cheaper or even available.

New look, uses of old Lazarus building a work in progress
Thursday, July 13, 2006
Mike Pramik
THE COLUMBUS DISPATCH

Larry Fisher surveyed the top of the Downtown Lazarus building and donned sunglasses as the hazy, summer sun caught his eye.

The reincarnation of the million-square-foot former department store was being created as construction workers hacked away at the brick behemoth. Yet several issues remain unresolved concerning the $60 million project that is expected to spark development in the RiverSouth district.

“This is an incredibly complicated job,” said Fisher, president of the Columbus Downtown Development Corp. “It’s complicated by the fact that the building was built at so many different times, at so many levels, with so many different materials, on sloping land.”

Construction workers so far have hauled out more than 19 million pounds of debris and have managed to recycle a little more than half of it. They’re currently turning about a quarter of the sprawling structure, built in eight stages beginning in 1908, into office space for the Ohio Department of Job and Family Services.

In January, that department will begin moving in. It will join the Ohio Environmental Protection Agency, which leased 200,000 square feet of the building in 1998.

Last week, Ohio State University College of the Arts said it plans to lease space near the corner of Town and High streets for galleries and an arts incubator that will involve students, faculty and alumni.

The centerpiece of the redevelopment, a building-high galleria and atrium at a new entrance along Town Street, is under way. The galleria is expected to serve as a focal point for Town Street, which eventually will be beautified and converted to two-way traffic.

Still, many questions surround the redevelopment of Downtown’s former retail cornerstone, and the project won’t be completed until all of them are answered:

• Will condominiums or a parking garage be built inside the old service building at the corner of S. Front and W. State streets?

• Who will lease the remaining 150,000 square feet of office space?

• What tenants are interested in 40,000 square feet of planned retail space on High Street?

• Will the walkway over High Street that links the building with Columbus City Center remain or be removed?

• What will become of City Center?

“It’s a puzzle, and yeah, there are still pieces missing,” said Edgar Lampert, president of Georgetown Co., the master planner of RiverSouth, a 23-block area of Downtown that includes the Lazarus building.

Lampert said he hopes to be able to answer the servicebuilding question in “three to four months.” Georgetown is still pursuing office tenants. But Lampert said the future of retail in the building might not be determined before Mills Corp. decides what to do with City Center, the underperforming Downtown mall.

City Center currently is in limbo. In February, Mills said that it will seek a sale of the company, which is under investigation by the Securities and Exchange Commission. In June, the company said it received its first round of bids, but no sale is imminent.

In 2003, when CDDC acquired the Lazarus building, it received a similar challenge. The structure would be important to redevelopment of River-South, because an empty building of that size would hardly be a catalyst for growth.

Lampert said one option was to tear it down. But with the EPA already a tenant, that was ruled out. Creating condominiums is on the back burner. Lampert said 70 condominiums might make sense for the old Lazarus service building.

Eventually, the plan that won out was signing another major state tenant, and the deal with Job and Family Services emerged.

Job and Family Services will begin moving 800 social-services employees into the building in January, spokesman Dennis Evans said. The agency will keep its administrative headquarters across the street at 145 S. Front St., and an office on 5 th Avenue near Port Columbus.

Employees have a separate lobby, which will be accessed through the galleria. So will the EPA, which currently uses the Front Street facade as an entrance. The galleria and atrium allow light to penetrate the middle of the building, said Brian Ezzell, vice president of development for Georgetown Co.

More light will come from 180 windows that Turner Construction is fitting into existing window spaces, previously covered by a stucco exterior that Lazarus installed.

An elevator now used by workers stops at the Lazarus building’s 5 th floor, where the elegant Chintz Room served diners for decades. When the renovation is complete, state workers won’t be able to order dainty sandwiches served on fine china. But they’ll bask in natural light and a commendable view of Downtown where only artificial light had shone.

“For a building that some people thought would only be good for demolition, we’ve really created some exciting space inside,” Ezzell said.

Karen Bell, dean of the OSU College of the Arts, said she’s likewise thrilled about the opportunity that the Lazarus building will afford the school. Bell said the incubator will give students experience in displaying their artwork, running a gallery or performing.

“We want it to be a beehive of activity,” she said.

Much of the space will be in the old Lazarus basement and will have a combination of natural and artificial light.

“For arts exhibit space, it’s good to have some light, but it’s better for the art to have more contained lighting,” Bell said. “Natural lighting would ruin the artwork.

“It’s quite perfect, I think.”

Fisher said about 380 parking spaces could be carved out of the service building, but large pillars there make doing so difficult and potentially more expensive.

Similarly, Lampert said, the odd-sized floors make using the space for condos a challenge.

Originally, the main entrance was planned for the service building, near Chapel Alley. But eventually, it was decided to move it to Town Street, where an old airshaft at Wall Street will become the main entrance. It will feature a 33-foot-wide wall decorated in an art deco style that will rise above the roofline.

In the middle of a portion of the wall will be a V-shaped glass box, which will be lighted from inside. The box and the wall will begin at the top of the second story, and entry will be made underneath an arch.

A 14-foot gate will be lowered at night to restrict access.

A wider sidewalk will be built, which will be part of a Town Street revitalization that will open that part of the street to two-way traffic, Fisher said.

“Town Street will be completely rebuilt,” he said. “It’s going to be the best example in the city of the concept of having the Scioto (River) reach up with fingers into the city.”

Wednesday, June 14, 2006
Kathleen M . Howley
BLOOMBERG NEWS

Nearly a third of U.S. homebuyers chose risky interest-only mortgages in 2005 as a record jump in prices drove affordability to a two-decade low, according to a Harvard University study.

The average mortgage payment in 2005 rose to 24 percent of the U.S. median income after taxes, the highest level since 1984, when it was 25 percent, adjusted for inflation, according to the report issued yesterday by Harvard’s Joint Center for Housing Studies in Cambridge, Massachusetts.

Home prices rose 9.4 percent in 2005, the biggest annual gain in more than 40 years of recordkeeping, the report said. Thirty percent of new mortgages last year were products that allow buyers to skip paying money toward principal, and some allowed deferred interest payments that could result in people owing more than they borrowed, the report said.

“Stretching to afford evermore expensive homes, borrowers increasingly turned to mortgage products other than fixedrate loans to lower their monthly payments,” the report said.

So-called interest-only adjustable-rate mortgages that defer principal payments in the early years of the loan rose to 20 percent of the dollar value of all mortgages last year, the report said. Payment-option adjustable mortgages, often called option-ARMs, rose to 10 percent of the total, the report said.

Payment-option mortgages have introductory rates as low as 1.25 percent and allow buyers to pay a minimal amount that can result in them being “upside down” in the mortgage, or owing more than they borrowed. Interest-only mortgages, with rates currently at about 4.25 percent, allow borrowers to defer paying principal. Both types of 30-year loans were rare two years ago, the study said.

The average U.S. rate for a 30-year fixed mortgage was 6.22 percent last year, and the median home price was a record $219,000. In 1982, rates reached a high of 15 percent, and the median home price was $131,305, the report said.

The most expensive housing market last year was San Jose, Calif., where the median singlefamily house price was $744,500, the report said, citing prices issued by the National Association of Realtors. Second was San Francisco, at $715,700, followed by Los Angeles, at $691,900.

First quarter showed zip, but experts fear drop
Friday, May 26, 2006
Jeannine Aversa
ASSOCIATED PRESS

WASHINGTON — The economy showed even more pep than initially thought in the first quarter, bounding ahead at a 5.3 percent pace. But a less energetic housing market and high energy prices now are taking out some of the oomph.

“I think we sort of had the last hurrah for the economy for a while,” said Nariman Behravesh, chief economist at Global Insight. “We aren’t going to see this kind of growth for a bit.”

The figure released by the Commerce Department yesterday showed gross domestic product during the first quarter surpassing the 4.8 percent annual rate estimated a month ago. It marked the strongest growth spurt in 2 1 /2 years. The upgrade mostly reflected stronger U.S. exports and better inventory building by businesses.

GDP, which measures the value of all goods and services produced within the United States, totaled $11.39 trillion in the first quarter when annualized and adjusted for inflation.

President Bush, coping with his lowest job-approval ratings, said the GDP report provides evidence that “America’s economy is on the fast track.”

Some more forward-looking barometers, though, suggest economic growth may be moderating.

The housing market, once a star economic performer, is losing some of its shine as mortgage rates march higher. Sales of previously owned homes fell 2 percent in April to a pace of 6.76 million units, the National Association of Realtors said in another report.

House prices posted the smallest increase in 4 1 /2 years. And, the total number of unsold homes climbed to a record high of 3.38 million units.

Economists predict economic growth in the April-to-June quarter probably slowed to a pace of about 3 percent to 3.5 percent, which would still be decent. The performance of the housing market and energy prices will play key roles in shaping the ultimate outcome.

Yesterday, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said the central bank can’t turn a blind eye to price changes for stocks and homes when setting interest rates but should take action only when they threaten the overall economy.

Bernanke suggested that the Fed shouldn’t try to identify and then prick speculative bubbles in home or stock prices that might develop.

There is little or no evidence that the Fed “is better able than the market to identify speculative bubbles and that it can successfully ‘deflate’ such bubbles without harming the broader economy,” he wrote in response to questions raised by Rep. Jim Saxton, R-N.J.

Thursday, May 11, 2006

Harley E. Rouda Jr.

After narrowing your search and visiting various homes, you’ve finally found the home you want. But before you can confidently purchase that next home, it’s important to have the property inspected by a professional. Home inspections are a necessary method to ensure you’re getting what you pay for, while also alerting you of any potential repairs you may need to make in the future.

When planning for an inspection, be sure to ask your real estate agent for advice since they’ve undoubtedly worked with a number of quality inspectors in the past. Once you have recommendations, be sure to do your own research before hiring anyone. Find out a potential inspector’s qualifications, obtain sample reports of their work and ask for references from previous clients. Because home inspections are unregulated in many states — including Ohio — you should also look for candidates who are members of the American Society of Home Inspectors (ASHI). Inspectors certified by the ASHI meet stringent requirements and abide by a strong code of ethics.

Once you’ve hired a home inspector, try to schedule your inspection at a time when you and your agent can be present. In general, a typical home inspection can last anywhere from two to four hours, depending on the size of the home. Be sure to ask questions or raise any concerns you may have. The more you know about your potential new home, the better.

After the inspection, expect a report outlining all possible problems within the home, from minor quick fixes to major repairs. Large-scale problems (heating, cooling, roofing or plumbing) can set you back between $2,000 and $5,000, medium repairs (insulation or painting flaws) can run between $500 and $2,000, while smaller issues (electric outlets or kitchen sink) will probably cost under $500. Keep all of these costs in mind when reviewing the overall price of the home. Be sure to have your real estate agent look over the inspector’s report and offer any additional input.

While the home inspection may not reveal problems that affect your decision to buy, you’ll be aware of any minor repairs you may need to make in the near future. But it’s also possible that the complexity of problems may leave you feeling unsure about the home purchase. If that’s the case, review all of the details with your real estate agent and determine if the property is the right choice for you. Realistically, you can expect at least a few minor fixes, but it’s up to you to decide how much maintenance you’re willing to put into your new home at the very beginning.

Reported by: 9News
Web produced by: Neil Relyea

One of Cincinnati’s oldest neighborhoods is going to get new upscale housing next year.

The NAI/Bergman Group will tear down an old apartment building and single-family home at the end of Allendale Drive to make way for the new 20-unit lofts project.

The building will have four floors that will include a parking garage, 10-foot ceilings and large loft-style rooms with a view of the Hyde Park Country Club golf course.

“It’s just a project [following the lines] of similar projects in Chicago, Atlanta, Columbus and Seattle,” said Brent Van Lieu, of NAI/Bergman. “We’ve taken the best of those projects and brought them here to Cincinnati.”

The condominium building will be called “The Lofts At 4120.”

Units will cost between $740,000 and $940,000.

Construction should begin by next week, with units ready by the fall of 2007.

Thursday, March 30, 2006

By SUE HAGAN

A nonprofit community housing organization is proposing that condos for homeowners of varying income levels be built on the current Barrett Middle School site at 345 E. Deshler Ave.

Rev. John Edgar, executive director for Community Development for All People, said his group is looking at the possible redevelopment of the six-acre Barrett property. The school, now in operation, will close in June as one of 12Columbus Public Schools slated to close before next fall.

Edgar emphasized that the concept is “extremely preliminary” and will “become a better plan after conversations” with community members and city officials.

He met with two Merion Village Association (MVA) board members on Monday, and plans to introduce the idea to the general membership at its April 5 meeting.

Elements of the concept are as follows:

# Preserve the historic part of Barrett Middle School, which was built in 1898 and was the original South High School, and develop it into condominiums or office space.

# Tear down the newer school additions, built in 1955 and 1965.

# Develop the open land into condominiums — 80 percent of which would be sold at market rate and 20 percent at prices affordable to homeowners who could afford a more modest mortgage. Subsidies would make up the difference.

# Work out a property trade with the school district, so the city would own the Barrett property and offer it for the project.

Admitting that there are a lot of “ifs” that would have to be resolved, Edgar said that City Council President Matt Habash has encouraged his group to pursue this.

He also said that, based on preliminary discussions, the Enterprise Foundation –a national organization that works with nonprofit groups onhousing issues — has indicated it might approve a loan for the venture.

Edgar said the profit from the sale of the condos would mostly be put back into the subsidies.

“This does nice things for income to the city if we talk about 50 to 70 families, with market rate folks who can afford the full amount,” Edgar said. “It also creates a shot in the arm for the business folks too, and continues to give the impetus for revitalization.”

Bob Leighty, MVA president, said the idea is intriguing.

“We are glad that Rev. Edgar is coming to the community early in the process, and we appreciate his interest in working to incorporate neighborhood ideas into their project,” he said.

“Barrett … is an historic and special place, and we look forward to the discussion about ideas for an appropriate redevelopment that respects Barrett’s educational and community history and sup- ports our diverse neighborhood,” he said.

Although conversations have not yet been initiated with CPS administrators, Edgar said he understands that the school district has no plans for the building.

“To have it stand vacant is a detriment,” he said. “If it’s vacant very long it will become an eyesore, it will be vandalized. And that is an incredibly attractive piece of real estate.”

Carole Olshavsky, CPS senior executive for capital improve- ments, was out of town and could not confirm district plans for the building.

Edgar said his idea has precedent and is working in other parts of the country.

“There are whole sections in the (Washington) D.C. area and in parts of Massachusetts … where developers have to promise that a certain percentage (ofhousing) will be available to people at or below 80 percent of the median income in the area,” he said.

He said a passerby “can’t tell from the street who has the condo that he paid $550,000 for, and who has one that was subsidized enough that it is affordable.

” … This creates a way to do upscale development that doesn’t price everybody out of the market. … We are being intentional about planning a new development where diversity is built in,” he said.

Edgar said he will try to build community support for the idea, including in German Village and Schumacher Place.

“Beyond that, we hope this idea will gain some energy and neighborhood groups across the city will see it as a model,” he said.

Community Development for All People is one of eight nonprofits approved by the city to develop affordable housing.

It is best known for the Free Store it has operated for seven years on the South Side; the store last year gave away $1.5-million worth of items, Edgar said.

Thursday, March 16, 2006

By RANDY NAVAROLI
ThisWeek Staff Writer

Two new condominium complexes could soon be going up on the North Side, one in Worthington and another near Polaris.

Village Communities Inc. is planning a 108-unit complex on a 17.5-acre site at 8074 Flint Road, north of Park Road.

State Street Realty is seeking permission to build up to 90 condos on 15 acres at 2150 E. Powell Road, north of Gemini Place. The development will be called The Lakes at Polaris.

Attorney Jill Tangeman, who represents both property developers, is currently seeking approval from the Far North Columbus Communities Coalition for the projects and for the required rezoning. The rezoning requests ask the FNCCC, the Columbus Development Commission and Columbus CIty Council to switch the two properties from a rural designation to a limited apartment residential district zoning.

“They seem to be OK with both of the proposals so far,” Tangeman said. She met with FNCCC officials on March 7.

FNCCC vice president Dan Province said the only problem he sees with either proposal concerns the Flint Road property.

“It’s a little too dense as it is. We’d like to see them adjust that,” Province said. “We’ve also asked them to do a traffic study for the area to make sure it won’t have a negative effect on traffic in the area.”

Province said the FNCCC supports the East Powell Road proposal as is. He said Tangeman will return to the FNCCC’s April 4 meeting to get its final approval for both projects before moving on to the Columbus Development Commission’s May 11 meeting.

Both the development commission and Columbus City Council must approve the rezoning requests before ground can be broken for the condos.

Tangeman said work on both projects could start this fall if she can get city council’s approval some time this summer.

She said the Flint Road project will be a one-story complex aimed toward senior citizens.

The East Powell Road complex will be traditional two-story townhomes.

Christ the King Church currently owns the East Powell Road property. The Worthington Board of Education owns the Flint Road site.

Stability reigns in central Ohio real estate
Sunday, February 26, 2006
Lee Stratton
THE COLUMBUS DISPATCH

Sorry to burst your bubble, but there isn’t a housing bubble to burst.

Central Ohio homeowners — or buyers — who worry about getting burned by the oft-predicted bursting of a real-estate bubble can rest easy: Nothing is likely to go “Pop!” and wipe out a big chunk of owners’ home equity.

Local home values are not overinflated, according to a variety of national and local analyses.

Instead, local values are most likely to keep chugging along at a below-average rate of appreciation.

But Ohio’s lagging economy, an abundance of houses on the market, and increasing interest rates and energy prices could slow central Ohio’s real-estate market.

“That’s not a bubble bursting,” said Walt Molony, spokesman for the National Association of Realtors. “A price bubble requires abnormal inflation.”

The Midwest, and Columbus in particular, has not had anything close to the annual appreciation experienced in Boston, San Francisco, portions of Florida and other areas of the Northeast and the West Coast. They have seen increases from 18 percent to 40 percent because there aren’t enough homes to meet an ever-growing demand.

The $177,978 average sales price of a single-family Ohio home in 2005 was about 4 percent more than the previous year, according to the Columbus Board of Realtors. That was far below the national average appreciation of 12.7 percent.

Central Ohio home prices have not escalated as much because of the plentiful supply of affordable homes and a demand dampened by a sluggish economy. Here are some indicators of why a real-estate bubble is unlikely in central Ohio:

• The cost of housing remains modest. The median selling price of owner-occupied homes (excluding newly built houses) in central Ohio last year was $152,000, about $55,000 less than the national average. Twenty other metro areas had median prices more than double that of Columbus. They include $446,500 in New York, $414,000 in Boston and $715,700 in San Francisco, according to the National Association of Realtors.

• Central Ohio is building homes faster than the population is growing. Between 1990 and 2004, central Ohio had a 31 percent increase in housing units and a 21 percent increase in population, according to the Mid-Ohio Regional Planning Commission. Between 2000 and ’04, the area added houses at nearly twice the rate of population growth.

• Central Ohio has lagged the nation in the creation of new jobs, which can escalate prices. The U.S. average job-growth rate was between 1.3 percent and 1.5 percent in the past five years, while the number of central Ohio jobs declined nearly 1 percent.

• Homes remain affordable in central Ohio. The median price of a central Ohio single-family home is 160 percent of the median household income, compared with a national average of 230 percent. In the 20 most expensive metropolitan areas, the average median home price is 380 percent of household income.

• Mortgages eat up less of central Ohioans’ income. The average annual cost of a mortgage in central Ohio is 12 percent of the average household income, compared with a national average of 16 percent and a top-20 cities average of 30 percent.

• It’s easier to build in central Ohio than in some bigger growing markets. In the past three years, central Ohio builders have added more single-family houses than were built in metro areas with the highest prices and larger populations, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. Columbus, with a metropolitan population of 1.7 million, added 31,458 houses. Greater Boston, with a population of 4.4 million, added 23,213; San Francisco, with 4.1 million people, built 24,760; San Diego, with 2.9 million residents, added 26,365 houses.

‘‘Even if there were a sudden increase in demand in Columbus, you can add to the housing stock. There’s room to build,” Molony said.

‘‘In Columbus, first-time buyers can start out in a single-family home. In places like San Francisco, it is more likely to be a low-end condo.

‘‘The hallmark of the Midwest is gradual increases in housing prices.”

Franklin County Auditor Joe Testa said examination of property values indicates long-term, predictable growth.

‘‘We don’t see any serious evidence to the contrary,” he said.

Several recent studies reached the same conclusion.

A 2005 analysis by the National Association of Realtors concluded that it would take mortgage interest rates of 17.2 percent coupled with a loss of 41,000 jobs to trigger a 5 percent fall in central Ohio home prices.

Interest rates are expected to remain below 7 percent this year, and Columbus is projected to have a modest increase in jobs.

The chances of central Ohio home values falling in the next two years are about six in 100, according to PMI Mortgage Insurance Co. That ranking places Columbus 45 th among 50 metro areas in terms of a pricefall risk.

In contrast, San Diego, Boston, San Francisco and Los Angeles are among a dozen cities with a greater than 50 percent chance of a price decline in the next two years.

‘‘Prices in San Francisco have been going up 18 percent, year for year,” said Beth Haiken, vice president of the PMI group, a mortgage insurance company. ‘‘Home prices have been increasing so much faster than income.”

Those metro areas have growing economies that continue to generate population increases even though land for new home construction is scarce and expensive, she said.

‘‘Markets on the coasts tend to be more volatile in their ups and downs. The middle of the country tends to be more linear, moving with income,” Haiken said.

Most predictions call for 2006 to be a national cooling-off period in housing, with about 5 percent fewer sales and an average appreciation of between 5 and 6 percent.

For central Ohio, that means homes likely will take longer to sell and may not fetch as much money as the sellers had hoped. But most homes will continue to appreciate in value from year to year, said Chris Reese, president of the Columbus Board of Realtors.

More than 14,500 homes are for sale in central Ohio, about 22 percent more than a year ago, according to the board.

‘‘It has turned into a buyer’s market,” Reese said.

Much of the unsold inventory is in new construction — including condominiums, she said. Houses priced at $120,000 to $140,000, and those between $200,000 and $250,000, supply the greatest number of for-sale signs, and the largest number of sales.

Despite the rise in inventory, 2006 should still set a record for number of homes sold in central Ohio when the final numbers are in, Reese said. January sales totaled 1,346, a 7.2 percent increase over the 1,252 sold in January last year. The average sale price last month was $172,267, a 2.6 percent increase from January 2005.

Too many houses and too few new jobs can lead to some price softness, said Molony, of the national Realtors group.

‘‘What results is a glacial pace of appreciation,” he said. ‘‘That is not a bubble.”

The ‘‘B” word is a stock market term that doesn’t apply to the housing market, said Haiken, of PMI. It aptly defines the 1990s boom-and-bust of high-tech stocks.

Aside from speculators who have been flipping condos in Florida, people invest in homes with the expectation of living in them for seven or more years, she said.

‘‘It’s not an investment that will pop instantly like a bubble,” she said.

Some metropolitan areas that PMI identified as high-risk are more like a balloon that that can inflate or deflate slowly without breaking, she said.

‘‘That’s how the housing market tends to work, even on the West Coast.”