Study: No price bubble in Columbus housing
Tuesday, February 15th, 2005A study by National City Corp. has spotted risky bubbles forming in 16 of the nation’s largest housing markets, though economists found no runaway prices in Ohio’s biggest cities.
The study said the most overvalued housing prices are found in cities far west of the Mississippi River, though two from the Midwest — Detroit and Saginaw, Mich. — were among the places where prices are overvalued by 20 percent or more.
Among Ohio cities, the study said, buyers in Cleveland typically pay a 7 percent premium to buy housing. But in Columbus, prices are undervalued by 7 percent, while housing in Cincinnati is undervalued by 6 percent, the study reported.
Study author Richard DeKaser, chief economist at Cleveland-based National City (NYSE:NCC), examined population, income levels, interest rates, and 2004 and historical prices to arrive at his findings.
“While the headline remains unchanged — there is no housing bubble in America — there is a growing risk of ‘bubblettes’ in certain places,” he wrote in the study.
The city with the most overvalued housing: Chico, Calif., where the study said a buyer would pay a 43 percent premium for a house. Eight California cities were among the 10 most overvalued housing markets, the study found.
The most undervalued housing market was Salt Lake City, by 23 percent, followed by Memphis, Tenn., by 20 percent.
Of the 29 cities identified by the study as overvalued by 10 percent or more, four are in the Midwest: Detroit, 22 percent overvalued; Saginaw, 21 percent; Chicago, 11 percent; and Minneapolis, 10 percent.
DeKaser wrote that housing prices may be at record highs, but interest rates have kept mortgage payments relatively low. He said 22 percent of income was needed to pay for a median-priced house last year — unchanged for more than a decade.
“While overvaluation in home prices presents a risk for future declines, these risks may well go unfulfilled,” DeKaser said. “The true test of today’s premiums … will be the economic environment, especially incomes and interest rates, in the years ahead.”